If you thought the era of electric vehicles marked the end of gasoline cars, think again! While Western brands are pulling their hair out over the rise of Chinese EVs, the latter are unleashing a veritable tsunami of combustion cars onto emerging markets. It’s a bit like a depressed giant starting to sell chocolate bars to hungry children: there’s reason to be concerned.
A massive influx of gasoline cars
China, while strutting around with its electric vehicles, is exporting millions of combustion engine cars that it can no longer sell on its own territory. The reason? The enthusiasm for electric vehicles has left traditional automotive giants in the dust, and now they find themselves with stocks of gasoline cars that need to go somewhere. Quite a funny situation, isn’t it?
In this image, a Chinese car, BAIC, seems ready to conquer new markets, perfectly representing this movement towards the internationalization of Chinese manufacturers. While historical European and American players struggle to maintain their market shares in the electric vehicle sector, they overlook a crucial fact: combustion cars continue to exist, and not just in old 80s movies.
A troubling rise
Since 2020, about three-quarters of China’s automotive exports consist of combustion cars. According to Reuters, this represents millions of vehicles ready to invade markets once dominated by foreign brands. Just imagine: China has gone from exporting one million vehicles a year to over 6.5 million this year. That’s a whole lot of gasoline cars hitting our roads!
An oversupply in the domestic market
This deluge of exports is directly linked to China’s energy and industrial policies. Government subsidies have created a price war that has literally devastated the gasoline car market in the country. As a result, China now has an impressive excess capacity: enough to produce 30 million combustion cars per year. It’s a bit like having a kitchen full of unsold cakes after a botched birthday party.
Here’s a glimpse of one of these models: BAIC is carving its way internationally by taking advantage of these surpluses. While the rest of the world fears EVs, Chinese brands are finding their happiness by rolling out their old gasoline glories.
Emerging markets as new playgrounds
To offload their excess inventory, Chinese manufacturers are not just taking a quick glance at the world map. They are targeting regions where electrical infrastructure is nonexistent and purchasing power is limited. Did someone say “battleground”? Eastern Europe, South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia have become the new arenas where Chinese brands are making waves, slowly but surely nibbling away at the market shares left vacant by Western giants.
Companies like SAIC, Dongfeng, BAIC, and Changan, which once relied on joint ventures with GM or Nissan, are finding their salvation abroad. For instance, SAIC exported over a million vehicles last year. Meanwhile, Chery saw its global sales jump from 700,000 units in 2020 to over 2.5 million in 2024, most of which are, of course, gasoline cars.
This image shows a Dongfeng model. With a price that defies competition, it attracts customers with disarming simplicity, like a good old action movie that doesn’t require complex reasoning to enjoy the spectacle.
Western giants under pressure
Western manufacturers are finally beginning to realize that they are being outpaced not by shiny new EVs, but by these cheap combustion cars. In Mexico, Chinese brands are capturing about 14% of the market, thus taking customers away from iconic brands like Chevrolet and Ford. In South Africa, they control 16% of the market while selling almost no electric cars.
And in Chile? One-third of new cars sold are Chinese, and most still run on fuel. It might be time for traditional players to wake up and react before their market shares become as thin as a crumbled cookie.
The future: a world dominated by China?
So where does all this lead us? According to some forecasts, Chinese manufacturers will add four million sales abroad by 2030. With this growth coupled with that of the domestic market, we could see China controlling nearly a third of the global automotive market in five years. And you can be sure that this ascent is not going to stop there.
This image shows a vehicle with a design inspired by the Nissan Frontier, sold at an unbeatable price. The Chinese seem determined to send the message: “Come to us for your car needs.” And with such a business strategy, who could resist them?
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